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| Kipnis & Cabrera (Photo: AP) |
Indians’ GM Chris Antonetti likes to talk about the "window of opportunity," and, by projecting these lineups and contract situations out, you can really begin to see what he is talking about.
Agree or disagree, the Indians have certainly gone all in with this version of the team by trading White and Pomeranz.
Keep in mind that these projections do not figure in potential free-agent additions or minor league promotions. When a player’s current contract expires, I do not assume they will be re-signed or who will be promoted in their place; I have simply left a blank. When a club option is present, I have assumed it will be exercised (except in the case of Carmona's last two options).
Indians 2012 Projected Starting Lineup
C - Santana
1B - LaPorta
2B - Kipnis
SS - Cabrera (Arb 2)
3B - Chisenhall
LF - Brantley
CF - Sizemore (Club Option)
RF - Choo (Arb 2)
DH - Hafner
SP - Jimenez
SP - Masterson (Arb 1)
SP - Tomlin
SP - Carrasco
SP - Carmona (Club Option)
Closer - C. Perez (Arb 2)
Relievers - Sipp (Arb 1), Smith (Arb 2), R. Perez (Arb 3), Pestano, Herrmann
Other notables: Shelley Duncan, Jack Hannahan and Luis Valbuena each reach their first year of arbitration.
Lost: The only everyday-Indian whose contract expires at the end of the 2011 season, is Kosuke Fukodome. Kearns and Durbin will also be free agents after the 2011 season.
Choices: The Tribe will have a club option on Carmona ($7 million) and Sizemore ($8.5 million, or a half-million buy-out). Carmona will continue to have club options in 2013 ($9 million) and 2014 ($12 million), if he is kept on the roster. Masterson and Sipp will reach their first year of arbitration; Chris Perez, Cabrera and Smith their second; and Rafael Perez his third (Perez is eligible for four years of arbitration).
Analysis: Hafner and Carmona both have club options for 2013. If this is a quality team, that means the only free agent after the 2012 season is Grady Sizemore. However, if they’re not performing, they can decline the option on both Carmona and Hafner, which would free up roughly $22 million going into 2013. The same rotation with continued development from Kipnis, Chisenhall, Brantley and Santana (and hopefully Choo and LaPorta) in the offense could be very dangerous come 2013. This is a young team that’s still peaking -- and relatively cheap. Perhaps the big bat will come this offseason and make this offense truly lethal.
Indians 2013 Starting Lineup
C - Santana
1B - LaPorta (Arb 1)
2B - Kipnis
SS - Cabrera (Arb 3)
3B - Chisenhall
LF - Brantley (Arb 1)
CF -
RF - Choo (Arb 3)
DH - Hafner (Club Option)
SP - Jimenez
SP - Masterson (Arb 2)
SP - Tomlin
SP - Carrasco
SP - Huff (Arb 1)
Closer - C. Perez (Arb 3)
Relievers - Sipp (Arb 2), Smith (Arb 3), R. Perez (Arb. 4), Pestano, Herrmann
Other notables: Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Mitch Talbot, Trevor Crowe and Justin Germano will all reach their first year of arbitration.
Lost: Grady Sizemore's contract will run-out after the 2012 season.
Choices: The Indians will have a $13 million club option on Hafner going into 2013. So there is a strong possibility neither Hafner nor Sizemore will be an Indian after the 2012 season. If they decline Hafner's option, there is a $2.75 million buy-out. If they keep Carmona around for 2012, they have another option for 2013 at $9 million. Going into the 2013 season, LaPorta and Brantley will reach their first year of arbitration. Masterson and Sipp will reach year two of arbitration, while Choo and Cabrera will be entering their third and final year. Rafael Perez will enter his fourth and final year of arbitration.
Analysis: Almost the exact same team returns for the third year in a row (if the Indians desire). Brantley could easily slide into center to accept a power bat in left, and even if Carmona's option is the only one declined, that would free up around $9 million to go find a bat.
Indians 2014 Starting Lineup
C - Santana (Arb 1)
1B - LaPorta (Arb 2)
2B - Kipnis
SS -
3B - Chisenhall
LF - Brantley (Arb 2)
CF -
RF -
DH -
SP - Jimenez (Player Option)
SP - Masterson (Arb 3)
SP - Tomlin (Arb 1)
SP - Carrasco (Arb 1)
SP - Huff ( Arb 2)
Closer - C. Perez (Arb 4)
Relievers - Sipp (Arb 3), Pestano (Arb. 1), Herrmann (Arb 1)
Other notables: Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Mitch Talbot, Trevor Crowe and Justin Germano all will reach their second year of arbitration.
Lost: Choo and Cabrera become free agents, as well as Hafner, if his option was picked up for 2013. Jimenez's contract may run out after 2013, his current deal has an option for 2014. If traded, the wording becomes a little vague and Jimenez may have the ability to void the option (it is not clear when he must make this decision). If Carmona is still around, he has another option for 2014 at $12 million. Raffy Perez and Joe Smith both become free agents
Choices: Santana, Pestano and Herrmann finally reach their first year of arbitration eligibility. LaPorta and Brantley reach year two of arbitration and Masterson and Sipp reach year three (they both have a fourth year of arbitration). Chris Perez reaches his fourth and final year of arbitration.
Analysis: This is the year that things begin to get cloudy. The rotation may still be intact, depending on what happens with Jimenez, but regardless Masterson, Tomlin and Carrasco will remain. The young kids still are in arbitration, but Cabrera and Choo may be gone. A lot of the core remains, however, which is why I would not be surprised if the Indians try to lock Cabrera up through at least his first year of free agency. Choo will be a more difficult case to predict, especially with his struggles this year and Scott Boras as his agent.
Indians 2015 Starting Lineup
C - Santana (Arb 2)
1B - LaPorta (Arb 3)
2B - Kipnis
SS -
3B - Chisenhall
LF - Brantley (Arb 3)
CF -
RF -
DH -
SP -
SP -
SP - Tomlin (Arb 2)
SP - Carrasco (Arb 2)
SP - Huff ( Arb 3)
Closer -
Relievers - Sipp (Arb 4), Pestano (Arb. 2), Hermann (Arb 2)
Other notables: Jason Donald, Lou Marson, Mitch Talbot, Trevor Crowe and Justin Germano all will reach their third year of arbitration.
Lost: Even if Jimenez elects to stay through 2014, his current contract will run out by 2015. Masterson and Chris Perez will become free agents as well. The Carmona contract will have finally run through all of its options by 2015.
Choices: LaPorta, Huff, Marson, Talbot, Crowe and Sipp all reach their final year of arbitration. Brantley and Donald are each currently eligible for a fourth year of arbitration. Kipnis and Chisenhall should reach their first year of salary arbitration this year.
Analysis: This is where the loss of Pomeranz and White begins to show through, but a long-term deal with Masterson will probably be explored this offseason, so he may factor into the rotation in 2015. Choo, Cabrera and Jimenez are more difficult to predict. The young core is still there as Brantley will be eligible for another year of arbitration and Santana, Chisenhall, Kipnis, Tomlin and Carrasco will still be under club control for some time. Essentially, the 2015 projection can be boiled down to this -- the beginning of the end for this core of players.
Even if Masterson, Cabrera, Choo and Jimenez were still around at this point, they would be getting quite expensive and into the wrong side of 30. Some reinforcements will certainly be needed by this point, if they are to continue their run at contention with what will probably remain a solid core of Santana, Kipnis, Chisenhall, Brantley, Tomlin and perhaps LaPorta and Carrasco. No matter what, the Tribe has certainly set themselves up for a serious run at contention in a very weak division, with a strong trio of pitchers at the top of their rotation.
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6 comments:
Those 2 blank starting rotation spots in 2015 look awfully lonely without Pomeranz and White around.
Yeah, but college pitchers taken in 2012 and 2013 draft could fill (like Pomz/White in '09/'10). Also development of pitchers next 3-4 years. Could be another trade....Gomez/ZMac fill....prospects like Barnes/Soto/Cook emerge, etc.
I like how people act as if we don't have any other talent in this organization besides Pomeranz and White. Yes, i would have loved to see them develop here in CLE but they're gone. Jimenez is true top of the rotation pitcher, which at their VERY BEST, only Pomeranz had that type of ceiling and he'd be years away from making that sort of jump. In a division where anyone can win at anytime, in any year, having a 1-2 punch of Masterson and Jimenez solidifies the Indians pitching for future division races.
Tony - what do you think the chances are that Jimenez would tear up his contract is exchange for more $$ and more years?
Brent, believe he'd do it in a heartbeat. QUestion is will the Indians considering he is so affordable for so long? I am not sure about that. But considering they are all in on him, if he pitches good rest of the year maybe something is done to get a few years added to his deal.
The thing with Jimenez is that he's a quite guy, and seems a little awkward in the spotlight at times.
His parents advised him on his current contract, and having seen him talk in post-game interviews and shows that highlight Rockies players, he's one of the most humble men I've ever seen. He's the kind of guy that values comfort and security over big money and part of me wonders if he doesn't opt out of his contract for 2014 and give the Rockies a discount.
I mean, we're talking about a guy that lived 5 block from Coors field with his family and walked to the park every day. I just get the feeling that he'd rather have finished his career with the Rockies.
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